Blog Post: The Tigray War

In 1991, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led the ousting of Ethiopia’s ruling military dictatorship, establishing a multi-coalition state. This new governmental scheme was based on a consociational model of democracy, in which different ethnic groups received codified status and protection, resulting in nine ethno-linguistic states with self-governance.

In 2018, however, ethnic violence exploded across the country, enabling mounting protests against the government. In the subsequent leadership reshuffle, the TPLF was ousted as the ruling party, and Abiy Ahmed became prime minister. Since then, tensions between the federal government and regional Tigray leadership have only continued to grow.

Things came to a head in 2020, when Ahmed postponed the country’s elections as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, the Tigray region decided to hold its own elections, leading to widespread military mobilization. Early on, it became clear that the conflict would devolve into a humanitarian catastrophe, beginning with reports of widespread civilian targeting. UN reports show that both parties of the war have committed war crimes. These crimes include sexual violence, civilian targeting, and ethnic cleansing. The war also engendered a massive refugee crisis, displacing millions of people, creating effects that will be felt for years to come. Ethiopia reported 5.1 million people were internally displaced in the year 2021. The material damage to infrastructure and property in the country is also alarming. Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance reported that $20 billion is required to rebuild “schools, health institutions and infrastructures in the Afar, Amhara and Tigray regions of the country.”

Fighting has since mostly tapered off as a result of a series of tenuous ceasefire negotiations in November 2022. But even now, uncertainty remains about whether the peace will be long-lasting, since Eritrea was not party to any of the peace negotiations. And, the same long standing ethnic disputes and power struggles persist. The TPLF, the leading Tigrayan political party, was outlawed and labeled a terrorist organization by the federal government in 2021.

As you prepare to draft ideas and solutions as a member of DISEC, you should try to ensure an outcome that protects human rights and provides the necessary humanitarian aid to those being affected by the disasters of this war. The committee should first focus on protections for humanitarian workers and on developing measures to prevent future war crimes like the ones committed during this conflict. What kind of guardrails might be installed to discourage unethical wartime practices? Or, perhaps consider a policy of disarmament that would disallow similar power struggles in the future. How can a federalist system endure, given widespread regional interests and ethnic cleavages?

Consider, as well, how the international community should respond to reports of war crimes, and, in particular, what DISEC and other international bodies should do? It is important to look back on past actions by this committee in similar circumstances to formulate new measures better-suited to the ever-changing present. Social media and its effects on war will be part of this adjustment—how does social media affect present-day international conflict? It will be beneficial to think of the effects of this conflict—such as changes to international socioeconomic dynamics—through an international lens in order to create meaningful and enduring policy.