Population Dynamics in East Asia

As discussed in the background guide, East Asian countries have been facing slowing population growth rates, and as a result, have turned to various forms of intervention in attempts to reverse this trend. According to the UN’s World Population Prospects’ Population Growth Rate data, the average population growth rate from 1950 to 1955 for China was 1.98. After periods of growth and decline, this five-year average has been dropping steadily beginning in the period ranging from 1985 to 1990. Most recently, the average population growth rate between 2015 and 2020 was recorded to be 0.46. Japan faces perhaps more urgency, as its population has been declining on average for the past ten years. The average population growth rate taken from the years 2015 to 2020 was -0.24, the negative growth rate indicating that the population size has been decreasing at a rate of 0.24.

To address these numbers, East Asian governments have begun implementing various policies to encourage families to raise more children. Last year, China adjusted its one-child policy, which mandated families have at most one child, by increasing the number of children allowed to three.

An article by The Economist published in October of 2021 summarizes the government’s various attempts. Besides updating policy, these also include providing monetary rewards and attempting to reduce the number of abortions. However, the article claims in its title, “Limiting access to abortions won’t solve China’s population woes,” pointing to the fact that many of the widely held beliefs and realities regarding childbirth and childcare, some stemming from the one-child policy, cannot be so easily changed.

More generally, many of the factors contributing to declining growth rates stem from cultural ideas or societal institutions that do not change rapidly. In Japan, for example, many mothers find themselves unable to find childcare services that would allow them to return to work after having children, and instead must give up their careers to care for their children. This lack of support for working mothers, along with other gender issues and societal structures, have discouraged many women from having children. Compounded with other cultural factors such as a shift away from tradition and marriage, direct solutions remain unclear while the issue of declining population growth becomes more prevalent than ever.

Best,

Kathy Zhong

Assistant Director